1. The core idea
AIGC·AI that produces text, images, audio, video and code. Its economic significance: the marginal cost of content and knowledge approaches zero.
The most useful lens is cost. AI is a prediction and generation machine. Wherever revenue rests on expensive prediction or expensive content, prices are collapsing. Count how much of your business sits on that assumption.
2. Three coordinates for judging the future
Cost
＋ Prediction and generation costs collapse
－ Old pricing models die overnight
适合 Audit the knowledge-intensive share of revenue
Capability
＋ AI climbs from chat to reasoning to autonomy
－ Boundaries move fast
适合 Track task-level substitution, not job panic
Rules
＋ AI regulation is crystallizing; rules are opportunity
－ Lagging compliance risks everything
适合 Front-load data and content compliance
Overlay the three: second-hand information and templated execution depreciate; first-hand judgment, exclusive data and real relationships appreciate. The intelligent economy reprices the value chain rather than abolishing work.
3. Four moves for firms
Recount the business
List the prediction-heavy and generation-heavy parts of revenue and cost.
Use it now
Deploy broadly in content, support, code and analysis. Learn by doing.
Build exclusive assets
Private data, domain knowledge, customer relationships. Models are commodities; assets are not.
Front-load compliance
Content labeling, data consent, accountability. When rules tighten, compliant players take the market.
4. Where humans stand
AI still cannot set its own goals, feel genuine empathy or handle messy real-world improvisation. The premium skills are asking the right questions, making judgment calls, taking responsibility and building real relationships. Use AI as an exoskeleton, not as a brain.